000 AGXX40 KNHC 131815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. ALLOWS FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR IN THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT WED INTO THU AS THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DIVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST DRAGS A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST ACROSS THE E GULF N OF 27N...GMZ086...WITH INCREASING NW WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FT. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA MOVES E AND ALLOWS FOR INCREASING RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF W OF 94W FRI AND INTO SAT AS A SFC LOW EXITS THE TEXAS COAST BY THEN. SFC LOW MOVES ENEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE W-CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SUN WITH INCREASING NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT. SW N ATLC... RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 28N WILL WEAKEN AND SINK TO ALONG 22N TROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AMPLIFIES AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. IN 36-48 HRS. IN THE NEXT 24 HRS...A WEAK FRONT SWEEPING BY THE N OF THE AREA WILL KEEP WLY WINDS OF 20 KT OVER AREAS N OF 29N TONIGHT INTO WED. STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF SE COAST EARLY THU AND RAPIDLY EWD TO ALONG 31N70W 27N77W BY THU EVENING. LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES 35-40 KT WINDS ATLC N OF 29N E OF 77W...INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFSX FORECAST WINDS OF 40-45 KT N OF 30N E OF 50W BY 18Z THU. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE AND REALITY MAY BE CLOSER TO THE GFSX AS THERE IS STRONG CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE WEAKER NOGAPS FCSTS 30-35 KT WINDS AS WELL. PLAN TO GO WITH THE GFS IN THIS PACKAGE. NWW3 BRINGS SEAS UP TO 20 FT BY THU EVENING N OF 30N E OF 70W. WILL GO WITH 12-18 FT SEAS IN GALE AREA FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE NWW3 20+ FT VALUES ARE REALIZED IN THIS STRONG CAA REGIME. SUPPRESSED RIDGE AXIS ALLOWS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO WLY WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA S OF 25N/26N BY THU EVENING. OUTLOOK...STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS RAPIDLY SEWD TO ALONG 24N65W SE BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI AND SE OF THE AREA SAT. NW WINDS OF 25-30 KT CONTINUE OVER AREAS E OF 70W FRI...DECREASE OVER ALL AREAS BY SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. MODERATE WLY WINDS MOVE INTO AREAS N OF 30N SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SWD. CARIBBEAN AND TRPCL ATLC... WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SW N ATLC SINKING SWD THROUGH THE FCST RESULTS IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ELY TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TRPCL ATLC THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THU EVENING... WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH ONLY ISOLATED 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN FAVORED FUNNELING AREAS. OUTLOOK...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WIND REGIME...EXCEPT MODERATE SW WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE TRPCL ATLC N OF 20N IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SW N ATLC COLD FRONT. WINDS WEAKEN SAT AND SUN. WARNINGS... GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU ATLC N OF 29N E OF 77W...AMZ080. FORECASTER COBB