000 AGXX40 KNHC 100702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF TAMPA TO 24N90W TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 06Z FORECAST TO REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON AND BE SE OF AREA BY TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE 20-25 KT...WITH QUIKSCAT FROM 00Z SHOWING SOME ISOLATED 25-30 KT AREAS OVER NW GULF AND NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE WIND AND SEAS AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES. CONDITIONS DECREASE QUITE RAPIDLY FROM NW-SE ON SUN AS HIGH PRES OVER SE U.S. SETTLES SWD OVER GULF. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER GULF THROUGH WED WITH WIND AND SEAS SHOWING A SLOW BUT STEADY DOWNWARD TREND. EXTENDED GFS AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE NW GULF COAST LATE WED...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT OVER NW PART OF AREA TO JUST N OF CAPE CANAVERAL AT 06Z. WEAK FRONTAL WAVE NEAR E CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST IS MOVING EWD ALONG THE FRONT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN THE LOW MOVES N OF 31N. THE LOW WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN OFF THE COAST...WITH FRONT MAKING FASTER PROGRESS SWD OVER FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS TODAY. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO NW BAHAMAS TO S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THIS EVENING...THEN PASSING BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN. FRONT CONTINUES SWD TO SE PART OF AREA LATE MON WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. STRONG WINDS BEHIND FRONT SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY RAPIDLY DOWN THE FLORIDA COAST...AND LAG ABOUT 6-12 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. SURGE OF HIGHEST WINDS TO 25-30 KT WILL ENTER N PART OF AREA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SEAS OF UP TO 16 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE BEING HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST AND NO BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED. WIND/SEAS WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF MON AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS N PART OF AREA. ON WED ANOTHER FRONT WILL CLIP THE N AND E PART OF AREA...BRINGING WITH IT W-NW WINDS TO 20-25 KT. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT WED AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SWD. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED NE WIND 20-25 KT CONTINUING OVER SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY DECREASE TODAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND MAKE ITS WAY SE TO WINDWARD PASSAGE TO GULF OF HONDURAS SUN NIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM HISPANIOLA TO GULF OF HONDURAS MON-WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT AND SUN...THEN DECREASE TO 15-20 KT MON-WED. ELSEWHERE...BRIEF ELY SURGE TO 20 KT OVER TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...WITH NLY SWELL THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THIS AREA AS WELL AS THE PASSAGES BETWEEN THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WIND AND SEAS DECREASE MON AS RIDGE N OF AREA MOVES E AHEAD OF THE ATLC PORTION OF FRONT. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER MOLLEDA