000 AGXX40 KNHC 090702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EST FRI JAN 09 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... OLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE SRN PART OF AREA AS NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF COAST. CURRENTLY THE WEAK LOW IS OVER LOUISIANA WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER EASTERN TEXAS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND NOT SE OVER THE OPEN GULF AS YESTERDAY'S GFS MODEL SUGGESTED. FRONT WILL ACCELERATE TONIGHT AS IT REACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE...THEN OUT OF AREA SAT AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW OVER THE GULF WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT IN WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY. ONGOING FORECAST OF 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT LOOKS GOOD AND MATCHES UP WELL WITH LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...WITH STRONGER WINDS TO 30 KT OVER THE SW GULF ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. SEAS 8-12 FT AS INDICATED IN CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OVER SW GULF. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE E AND SETTLE OVER THE NRN GULF MON AND TUE...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N60W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE...AND THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES CENTER MOVES ACROSS NE PART OF AREA. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION AND STRENGTH OF LOW DEVELOPING N OF OUR AREA OFF THE SE U.S COAST TONIGHT. LOW SHOULD BE E OF 70W ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NW BAHAMAS. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE BAHAMA CHAIN LATE SUN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY OVER SE PART OF AREA LATE MON AND TUE. NE WINDS 15-20 KT WILL HANG ON E OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY TODAY...THEN DECREASE AS WINDS BECOME SLY OVER MOST OF AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MAINLY N OF 29N TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT S TO 26N SAT AND SAT NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 25 KT...WITH SOME 30 KT WINDS NEAR THE GULF STREAM OVER NW PART OF AREA. STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST PART OF AREA SAT NIGHT SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z NOGAPS MODEL. NWW3 HAS SEAS TOPPING OUT AT 17 FT ALONG 31N SAT NIGHT...WHICH IS ONLY 1 FT HIGHER THAN THE 16 FT CURRENTLY FORECASTED. WINDS START OUT STRONG ON SUN...THEN DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO RIDGE ACROSS N PART OF AREA. MON LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND DAY WITH NLY SWELL STARTING TO SUBSIDE. WLY WINDS INCREASE OVER N PART TUE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER FRONT WHICH BRUSHES THE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NE WIND 20-25 KT CONTINUE OVER SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH DECREASING WINDS ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND REACH WINDWARD PASSAGE TO GULF OF HONDURAS ON MON WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. EASTERN PART OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO EXTREME NW CORNER OF TROPICAL N ATLC BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND AS FRONT ALREADY QUITE WEAK BY THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST OF 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND FRONT STILL LOOKS GOOD AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY BIG CHANGES WITH NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. NLY SWELL STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN TROPICAL N ATLC AREA SAT AND REACH 10 FT THROUGH SUN. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OVER SW CARIBBEAN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO DECREASING WINDS E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER MOLLEDA