000
AGXX40 KNHC 060645
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
145 AM EST TUE JAN 06 2004

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SE AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS 
FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND SW TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO.  MODELS 
CONSISTENT IN MOVING FRONT SE AND REACH SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 
BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE S OF AREA ON WED.  
1043 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY 
SWD TODAY...THEN EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WED.  
COMBINATION OF STRONG GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE N-NE WINDS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH IS CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE GFS 
MODEL AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS INDICATED.  
WILL MENTION GUSTS TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST IN AREA 
OF FAVORED FUNNELING DOWN THE COAST.  NWW3 BRINGS SEAS UP TO 15 
FT OVER SW GULF TUE NIGHT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING 
THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS.  NWW3 RUNNING TYPICALLY LOW 
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DOING OK WELL BEHIND THE 
FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST.  WIND AND SEAS WILL STAY UP ALL AREAS 
AT LEAST THROUGH WED...WITH THE DECREASING TREND STARTING WED 
NIGHT AND THU AS HIGH MOVES RAPIDLY EAST AWAY FROM AREA.  NEXT 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST LATE THU NIGHT AND SWEEPS 
THROUGH ENTIRE GULF BY EARLY SAT.  ANOTHER INCREASE IN WIND/SEAS 
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...LIKELY REACHING SIMILAR VALUES AS 
WITH CURRENT SITUATION.     
 
SW N ATLC...
COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO MOVE OFF SE U.S. COAST IN THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS AND WILL EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 
THIS EVENING.  FRONT CONTINUES SE TO NEAR BERMUDA-NW BAHAMAS TO 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA LINE WED...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 
25N60W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA THU.  HIGH 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OVER THE ATLC AS IT IS 
OVER THE GULF...THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO EXCEED 20-25 KT 
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HIGHEST SEAS SHOULD 
BE AROUND 12 FT...SIMILAR TO NWW3 OUTPUT.  SE OF FRONT...WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE IN 15-20 KT RANGE OVER SE PART OF AREA WITH ELY 
SWELL TO 8 FT...SLOWLY SUBSIDING WED NIGHT AND THU.  WIND AND 
SEAS DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY AREA-WIDE FROM N TO S THU AS FRONT 
EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE FRI.  DECREASING TREND WILL BE 
SHORT-LIVED AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS JUST N OF AREA AND PUSHES NEXT 
FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF COAST LATE FRI...REACHING BERMUDA TO CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS LINE ON SAT.  EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF 20-25 KT WINDS 
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AN AREA OF SW 20 KT WINDS DEVELOPING 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE FRI AND SAT.  

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 23Z LAST NIGHT INDICATES WINDS COMING DOWN TO 
AROUND 25 KT OVER SW CARIBBEAN...AND NEAR 20 KT OVER E CARIBBEAN 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC.  EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY DECREASING 
ACROSS AREA AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM 
REGION.  NEXT INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS WILL OCCUR WED AND WED 
NIGHT OVER NW CARIBBEAN AS COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THAT AREA AND 
BRINGS NE WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KT.  FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE 
ON THU WITH WIND AND SEAS SUBSIDING LATE THU AND FRI.  ANOTHER 
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW CARIBBEAN ON SAT AND INCREASE WINDS TO 
20 KT BEHIND FRONT...WHILE OVER REST OF CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL 
N ATLC WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT.  HOWEVER...NWW3 MODEL 
FORECASTS NORTHERLY SWELL TO INCREASE TO 10 FT OVER N PART OF 
TROPICAL N ATLC LATE FRI AND SAT FROM A DISTANT NORTH ATLANTIC 
LOW.

WARNINGS...
NONE.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA