000 AGXX40 KNHC 031749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST SAT JAN 03 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CHANGES IN STORE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA BY 48 HOURS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC. DETAILS BY REGION... GULF OF MEXICO... SFC RIDGE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH 00Z MON THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT SUN AND MOVES TO MOBILE BAY-27N94W TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE BY LATE MON. RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT TO 10-15 KT MON. FRONT USHERS IN NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT FAR NW PORTION BY LATE MON WITH NWW3 TYPICALLY SLOW IN BUILDING SEAS. MODELS MAY BE UNDERFORECASTING WINDS AND NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIALLY ARCTIC NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS. SW N ATLC... BROAD FLAT SFC RIDGE HOLDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS FAR NW PORTION BY LATE MON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TRPCL ATLC... ALL NWP MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CONSEQUENTLY DO NOT CAPTURE THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE CLOSE WITH AN AREA OF 30 KT WINDS INITIALIZED IN THE AREA. GOING WITH MODEL TRENDS...PLAN TO KEEP GALE AREA GOING FOR 30-36 HOURS THEN DROP WINDS TO 25-30 KT IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUN. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE 15 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF AMZ082 MON. OUTLOOK PERIOD... COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY SE TO ALONG 31N73W-CENTRAL FLORIDA- 25N90W TO SW GULF BY LATE TUE...AND EXTEND FROM 31N65W-BAHAMAS- YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE WED AND 26N65W-23N78W-20N85W BY LATE THU. LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE FRONT BY WED WITH NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF. BY THU AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS COVERS THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO. NOTE: NWP MODELS ONLY FORECASTING 20 KT WINDS OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER FEEL THE MODELS WILL BE UNDERFORECASTING WINDS BY 5+ KT GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS. WARNINGS... AMZ084 AND AMZ086...SW CARIBBEAN AND E CARIBBEAN...FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH 06Z/MON. FORECASTER COBB