000
AGXX40 KNHC 021812
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
110 PM EST FRI JAN 02 2004

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

HIGH PRES CENTERED ALONG 31N JUST OFF THE SE U.S COAST WILL MOVE 
SLOWLY E THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEAVING BEHIND A RIDGE NEAR 
29N/30N OVER ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SAT.  RIDGE SHIFTS 
S TO 27N/28N AND WEAKENS FROM W TO E AS NEXT FRONT ENTERS NW 
GULF EARLY MON.  LATEST GFS MODEL SHOWS A STRONGER FRONT THAN IN 
LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...MOVING FRONT THROUGH MOST OF GULF OF 
MEXICO...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON 
WED/DAY 5.  HPC DAY 5 PROG IS NOT AS FAR S WITH THE FRONT ON 
WED...AND I WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER WITH ITS SWD MOVEMENT UNTIL 
BETTER CONTINUITY IN THE LONGER RANGE IS ESTABLISHED. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...MORNING QUIKSCAT DATA MISSED 
AREA OF CURRENT GALES...HOWEVER SHIP DATA INDICATES THAT WE 
STILL HAVE A 30-35 KT GALE OCCURRING OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST.  
WILL HANG ON TO GALES FOR TONIGHT...THEN BRING WINDS DOWN SAT AS 
PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLOWLY RELAX.  SEAS SHOULD MAX OUT AT 
ABOUT 16 FT TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE SAT.  MOST OF 
REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WILL REMAIN WITH 
20-25 KT WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THROUGH SUN...WITH A SLOW DECREASE 
TO  NORMAL-SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WINDS FOR NEXT WEEK.  ONLY 
AREAS SEEING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (15-20 KT) ARE THE EXTREME W 
CARIBBEAN AND THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 70W.

SW N ATLC...STATUS QUO EXPECTED HERE WITH HIGHEST WINDS TO 20 
KT/SEAS TO 8 FT OVER AREA S OF 24N INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND SE 
BAHAMAS.  WINDS WILL VEER TO SW AND INCREASE TO 15 KT OVER AREA 
N OF 28N MON AS RIDGE RETREATS EWD.  FRONT ENTERS ATLC WATERS 
EARLY TUE WITH 20 KT WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT.  AS MENTIONED IN 
FIRST PARAGRAPH...GFS STRONGER/FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND RESULTS 
IN HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KT BEHIND FRONT ON WED.  I WILL NOT GO 
AS HIGH AS GFS WINDS FOR WED...BUT PLAN ON MENTIONING 20 KT 
WINDS BEHIND FRONT BOTH TUE-WED.  WIND/SEAS S OF 24N WILL 
DECREASE TUE AND WED AS RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE E.  

GULF OF MEXICO...E TO SE FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA TODAY...WITH 
SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT OVER FAR SE GULF.  NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GULF 
FORECAST ANTICIPATED AS SLY WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT OVER W 
GULF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN...THEN DECREASE TO 15 KT AS FRONT 
MOVES OFF TEXAS COAST.  WINDS BEHIND FRONT STILL LOOK TO BE IN 
20-25 KT RANGE FOR NW GULF...AND A STEADY 20 KT OVER MIDDLE AND 
E GULF FOR TUE AND WED.  AGAIN WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW GFS 
GUIDANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL WINDS IN MIDDLE AND E GULF.  ADDED 
MENTION OF FOG NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE 
IN AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.  SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A 
LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE...MAINLY DUE TO A 4-5 FT SE SWELL 
WITH 8-9 SECOND PERIODS COMING UP THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP A BIT THROUGH SUN...THEN 
BACK DOWN TO NEAR NWW3 LEVELS MON.  WILL ADJUST NWW3 SEAS UPWARD 
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE.

WARNINGS...
AMZ084 AND AMZ086...SW CARIBBEAN AND E CARIBBEAN...FROM 11N-14N 
BETWEEN 73W-78W.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA