000 AGXX40 KNHC 261730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2003 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. WEAK FRONT OVER THE ATLC WATERS CONTINUES TO DRIFT ESE...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN END OF FRONT FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA...APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY AT THIS TIME. THE ENTIRE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RESUME AN ESE MOTION TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN DEVELOPING THE LOW PRES SUN EAST OF THE AREA. THE 12Z GFS DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS MUCH AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE LOW WILL REMAIN E OF THE OFFSHORE AREAS. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE ATLC WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 30N89W TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY MON...THEN WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TUE NIGHT AND DISSIPATE WED OVER THE GULF. THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE N SECTIONS OF THE ATLC WATERS WED. ATLC...LIGHT NE WINDS EXPECTED NW OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT ELY WINDS SE OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE NW OF THE FRONT EARLY SAT...EXCEPT REMAIN LIGHT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF THE AREA WINDS WILL BECOME NE 20 TO 25 KT E OF 70W SUN THROUGH EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE S OF ABOUT 25N WED AS THE RIDGE SETTLES EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE THE LOW IS DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST...SWELLS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WHAT IS INDICATED IN CURRENT OFFSHORE FORECASTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEXT WEAK FRONT TUE AND WED. GULF OF MEXICO...WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE SE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. EARLY MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS DETECTED 5 TO 7 FT SEAS OFF THE TEXAS COAST. WAS RATHER SURPRISED TO SEE 7 FT SEAS AT BUOY 42019 AS WINDS DID NOT REACH 20 KT OVER NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST WAVEWATCH SEAS UP A COUPLE OF FEET. 25 KT WINDS EXPECTED SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO ADJUST NWWIII SEA FORECAST UPWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY MON AND BECOME LIGHT TUE AND WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...WINDS OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODERATE NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS SUN. 20 KT WINDS EXPECTED N OF ABOUT 18N BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON AND TUE. GFS INDICATING NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT SPREADING S TO ABOUT 15N TUE AND WED. SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH 8 TO 12 FT OVER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA TUE AND WED. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER BROWN