000
AGXX40 KNHC 181822
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
120 PM EST THU DEC 18 2003

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

FORECAST AREA IN A BRIEF RESPITE PERIOD BEFORE NEXT SIGNIFICANT 
FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE TONIGHT AND FRI.  CURRENT FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO SE BAHAMAS...CONTINUING SW TO 
HONDURAS.  WIND AND SEAS HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 
YESTERDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE 
WINDS REMAIN NEAR 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.  NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE 
INTO GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. 
COAST OVERNIGHT.  GULF OF MEXICO WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 
KT...NOT AS STRONG AS WITH THE LAST FRONT.  ACCORDINGLY...SEAS 
WILL ALSO NOT BE AS HIGH WITH 10 FT THE MAX VALUE ANTICIPATED.  

THE FRONT WILL BE FELT A BIT MORE ON THE ATLC SIDE AS LOW PRES 
DEVELOPS WELL N OF AREA AND HELPS TO BRING DOWN ANOTHER ROUND OF 
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG WINDS TO THE N PART OF SW N ATLC 
LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRI.  SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF 
GALES OF YESTERDAY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO REACH 30 KT BEHIND THE 
FRONT N OF 29N WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE.  GFS AND 
NOGAPS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND MATCHES WELL 
WITH EXPECTED GALES N OF 31N IN OPC AREA.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
LIKELY PERSIST INTO SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE SAT NIGHT AND 
SUN.  NWW3 SEAS ARE AS HIGH AS 17 FT ALONG 31N FRI AND SAT...AND 
HAVE NO PROBLEM USING THIS AS THE HIGH END OF THE RANGE OF 
SEAS.      

THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE NOTICED IN THE CARIBBEAN 
BY AN INCREASE IN THE ALREADY STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA...WITH 
GFS MODEL SHOWING A SOLID AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS BETWEEN JAMAICA 
AND HONDURAS SAT AND SUN.  THE FRONT WILL HELP TO DECREASE WINDS 
OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST...BUT STILL EXPECT WINDS IN 20-25 KT 
RANGE MAINLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-78W.

SUN AND MON...FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER FAR SE 
PORTION OF SW N ATLC AREA WITH STRONGEST WINDS DEPARTING TO THE 
E.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NE OVER ATLC...AND E-SE OVER 
GULF OF MEXICO.  HIGHEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL BE S OF 
27N OVER ATLC...S OF 25N E OF 90W IN GULF...AND N OF 18N W OF 
78W OVER NW CARIBBEAN.  SEAS WILL SETTLE INTO 8-9 FT RANGE IN 
AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS...WITH RESIDUAL SWELL NE PART OF ATLC 
KEEPING SEAS 6-8 FT.  

TUE WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE DECREASING TREND...EXCEPT 
OVER NW GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE NEXT FRONT IN THE SERIES MOVES 
INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS POSSIBLY TO 25 KT BEHIND IT. 

WARNINGS...
NONE.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA