000
AGXX40 KNHC 141835
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
230 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SURFACE LOW PRES N OF FORECAST AREA HAS TRAILING COLD FRONT 
ACROSS FLORIDA ENTERING ATLC THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY STRONG
NW TO N WIND BEHIND.  SW WIND WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF COLD FRONT 
TO GATHER SPEED TO GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT AND MON...LIFTING N OF 
AREA BY EARLY MON NIGHT.  GFS WHICH WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF 
ALL MODELS YESTERDAY NOW MORE IN STEP WITH NOGAPS AND ETA BARELY 
REACHING GALE FORCE S OF 31N.  ALL MODELS AGREE WITH WINDS COMING
DOWN AS RIDGE BUILDS BUT RENEW STRONG NEAR GALE FORCE WIND AGAIN 
BY DAY 3 AS NEW COLD FRONT CROSSES SW N ATLC. 

STRONG WINDS FOLLOWING PREVIOUS COLD FRONT STILL LINGER E OF 90W
BUT LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT ONLY.  MON WIND BECOME LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WITH SE TO S RETURN FLOW INCREASING W OF 95W IN ADVANCE 
OF NEW COLD FRONT...THIS ONE DRIVEN BY 1032 MB HIGH PRES.  
STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS SWEEP ACROSS GULF WITH GALE FORCE 
EXPECTED S OF 25N W OF 90W AND 14 FT SEAS BY DAY 3.  STRONG WIND 
AND SEAS ABOVE 13 FT EXTEND INTO DAY 5.  GFS REPEATS AS MOST 
AGGRESSIVE MODEL BUT UNDERSTANDABLE THIS OCCASION GIVEN STRENGTH 
OF HIGH PRES BEHIND COLD FRONT.  

CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MODERATE TRADES THROUGHOUT FORECAST 
PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION OF COLD FRONT INCURSION INTO NW SECTION 
WHERE STRONG WIND TAKE OVER MON.  GRADIENT TIGHTENS MON AND TUE 
INCREASING WIND W OF 70W UNTIL DAY 4 AND 5 WHEN SECOND COLD 
FRONT MOVES INTO NW CARIBBEAN.  SEAS 7-10 FROM NWW3 REASONABLE 
AND FOLLOW

.WARNINGS...
GALE WARNING ATLC AMZ080 N OF 29N AT 00Z DEC 15 WITHIN 300 NM E 
OF COLD FRONT.  

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES