000 AGXX40 KNHC 211644 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2003 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. AT THE UPPER LEVELS BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF 75W TONIGHT THEN EAST OF 70W MON AND EAST OF 65W TUE. A RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH EXTENDING ABOUT 20 DEGREES WEST OF THE TROUGH. A STRONG MIDDLE LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND REACH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL NOT EXTEND VERY FAR SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. A RATHER WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD DECREASE TO MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KT SAT HOWEVER A STRONG LOW NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA WILL CAUSE 20 TO 25 KT NORTHWEST WIND OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST MON. A STRONG SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUNDAY WITH GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST GULF ZONES. THE FRONT WILL REACH A LINE FROM THE GEORGIA COAST TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE MON OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE GULF AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY MOVE SOUTH OVER TEXAS AND HENCE THE STRONG WIND OVER THE WESTERN GULF BUT BECAUSE OF THE SHORTWAVE NOT EXTENDING VERY FAR SOUTHWARD THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE WIND DECREASING ACCORDINGLY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE EAST U.S COAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE TUE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN GULF WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER WITH LITTLE OR NO HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL EXPERIENCE 15 TO 20 KT OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND TONIGHT AND SAT BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY. THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT IN THE CARIBBEAN HOWEVER THE WIND WILL INCREASE TO EASTERLY 15 TO 20 KT AGAIN TUE AND WED AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MID ATLANTIC SATES. OUTLOOK... SEE ABOVE. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER LL