000
AGXX40 KNHC 160548
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
125 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2003

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

HIGH CENTER MOVING OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST TONIGHT WILL 
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT E TO SE WINDS AND SUBSIDING 
SEAS IN THE ATLC N OF 26N AND LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE...MAINLY 
IN THE WESTERN GULF...SE TO S WINDS N OF 25N IN THE GULF. 

AS ADVERTISED EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BAND OF 20 PLUS KT WINDS 
COVERING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SW N ATLC AS 
WELL AS SE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN QUIKSCAT 
AS WELL AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. FOR 
THE GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA...STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS 
WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE BY MON AFTERNOON AS THE CULPRIT HIGH 
CENTER OFF THE SE US COAST FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE W 
ATLC. FOR THE W ATLC...BAND OF 20 TO EVEN 25 KT WINDS WILL 
REMAIN S OF 26N E OF 78W INTO TUE BEFORE FINALLY RELAXING.

OUTLOOK...
NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE MORNING WITH FRONT 
SHIFTING E AND EXTENDING FROM N FLORIDA SSW TOWARD THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA BY WED MORNING. LATEST GFS INDICATING STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN GULF WED WITH STRONG NW 
WINDS W OF THE FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC WATERS BY WED NIGHT. OF 
NOTE HOWEVER...THE 0000 UTC MARINE MOS GUIDANCE FOR BUOYS IN THE 
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF ARE INDICATING WINDS NEAR 20 KT IN 
CENTRAL GULF AND 26 KT IN WESTERN GULF WED MORNING. BEARING THIS 
IN MIND...LOOKS LIKE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NEAR GALES WILL BE 
IN THE SW GULF. FOR THE ATLC...SIMILAR MOS INDICATION IS WINDS 
OF 25 KT IN SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS E 
OF JACKSONVILLE FL...SO MODERATE TO STRONG WORDING ON WED. 

FOR THU IN THE SW N ATLC...WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF STRONG WINDS 
BEHIND FRONT...ALTHOUGH GFS DOES SEEMS TO BE SHOWING SOME GALES 
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. SINCE THIS APPEARS TO BE FIRST RUN 
TO INDICATE SUCH STRONG WINDS IN THE ATLC...WILL NOT BITE OFF ON 
NEAR GALE WED NIGHT AND THU FOR THE MOMENT. I WOULD SUSPECT THAT 
1200 UTC RUN TODAY MAY HELP IN MAKING THAT DECISION.
 
WARNINGS...
NONE.   

FORECASTER HOLWEG