000
AGXX40 KNHC 150637
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
125 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2003

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ATLC COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY SE TONIGHT. LOW PRES 
NE OF PUERTO RICO IS RESTING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SW N 
ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY 
DRIFT NE THROUGH TODAY...REMAINING DETACHED FROM THE FRONT...BUT 
FORECAST TO MERGE WITH IT INSIDE OF 24 HOURS. TRAILING HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY 
E THROUGH THE WEEK-END WITH AN BAND OF 20 TO 25 KT. NE TO E 
WINDS SETTING UP FROM 25N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 85W OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC...GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN SEA. 

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS... 
CENTRAL CUBA...AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. S OF 25N TO THE 
FRONT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW AT ABOUT 20 KT...HOWEVER...QUIKSCAT 
PASS NEAR 2300 UTC AS WELL AS SOME 0000 UTC SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...S OF THE FRONT ARE INDICATING 20 TO 
25 KT NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
SHIP REPORTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT IN AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE 
TONIGHT. WILL BUMP UP WINDS IN THIS AREA FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH SEAS 
GIVEN IN NWW3 SEEM REASONABLE WITH FETCH LIMITATION DUE TO CUBA 
AND JAMAICA. SIMILARLY AN OBSERVATION IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 
FROM 0000 UTC REPORTED 25 KT NE WINDS AND WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS  OVER THIS AREA. GFS DID INITIALIZE 
THIS TINY WIND MAX...ALTHOUGH QUICKLY RELAXED IT TO 15 KT BY 
0600 UTC. WILL HOLD UP WINDS IN THIS AREA AS WELL TODAY. 

ETA/NOGAPS/GFS ALL INDICATING LOW PRES LOCATED OVER NORTHERN 
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS INTO SUN AND THE EARLY PORTION OF THE 
OUTLOOK. NOT SURE IF THIS IS NEWLY FORMED WAVE ALONG THE FRONT 
OR THE REMNANT OF THE CURRENT LOW MEANDERING NE OF PUERTO RICO. 
IN EITHER EVENT...THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE NE WINDS OVER MUCH 
OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF SW N ATLC THROUGH SUN AND INTO MON.

OUTLOOK...
BY TUE...NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF. MODELS SEEM A 
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE TONIGHT ON THE ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS 
WITH IT AS GFS IN NOW DEVELOPING 995 MB CENTER LOCATED OVER 
EASTERN MISSOURI BY TUE MORNING. GIVEN THAT...GFS STIRS UP 25 TO 
30 KT OF WIND AND 12-13 FT SEAS OVER THE GULF ON WED. NOT READY 
TO BUY INTO THAT SOLN JUST YET. WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF STRONG 
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS...ALTHOUGH THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON JUST 
HOW STRONG. 

FINALLY...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE TRAILING HIGH PRES WITH THE 
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A PACIFIC MARITIME AIRMASS AND NOT A 
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...I AM LEANING TOWARDS MORE OF A 20 TO 25 KT 
EVENT IN THE GULF ON WED.

WARNINGS...
NONE.   

FORECASTER HOLWEG