000 AGXX40 KNHC 221848 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2003 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER GULF WEAKEN MOVE S TO 24N AS COLD FRONT MOVES OVER NE GULF TONIGHT. HIGH PRES REBUILDS BEHIND FRONT AS PER MODELS ENSEMBLE. AGREEMENT ALSO ON SECOND COLD FRONT INTO NW GULF DAY 5. STRONG N WIND AND 12 FT SEAS INDICATED BY MODELS BEHIND FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC GET A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED. MODELS CAN NOT DECIDE WHETHER LOW OVER WRN CARIBBEAN TRACK N INTO ATLC OR REMAIN MEANDERING IN SW CARIBBEAN. MORE AGGRESSIVE AVN MOVES LOW N ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH TIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONG ...ADMITTEDLY IT HAD NEAR GALE IN PREVIOUS RUNS...WIND AND SEAS TO 12 FT. IT ALSO LEAVES A VORTICITY MAX IN SW CARIBBEAN. NOGAPS AND ETA PLAY IT THE OTHER WAY...WHERE MAIN VORTICITY REMAINS IN CARIBBEAN WHILE SECONDARY OR WEAKER VORT MAX DRIFTS INTO ATLC BUT IMPACT ON ATLC WIND AND SEAS IS MUCH WEAKER. WHILE CREDIBILITY ON AVN FLICKER WITH TIME AS MAIN LOW PRES SITS IN CARIBBEAN...CONSENSUS OF TIGHT GRADIENT IN SW N ATLC REMAINS HIGH AND FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THOUGHT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL NOT BE AS AGGRESSIVE AS AVN MAINTAINING WIND AND SEAS BELOW AVN RUN...BUT HIGHER THAN ETA AND NOGAPS. WIND AND SEAS DETERIORATE LATE IN OUTLOOK AS SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS SCENE. T.S. NICHOLAS CONTINUES WEAKENING TO DEPRESSION TONIGHT. LITTLE IMPACT ON TROPICAL ATLC WATER OR ELSEWHERE. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES