000 AGXX40 KNHC 140548 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. HURRICANE ISABEL... THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE SW N ATLC ZONE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK IS IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS...THIS MAKES THE FORECAST MUCH EASIER TONIGHT. THE GFS ALSO FORECASTS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD WITH THE STORM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE THE GFS...NOW HAS A MUCH STRONGER AND BIGGER WIND FIELD...THE NWW3 FORECAST OF ISABEL GENERATED SWELLS SEEMS MUCH BETTER...BUT STILL NOT PERFECT. THE NWW3 WAS INITIALIZED WITH 4 FT SEAS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HOWEVER...BUOY 41010 IS ALREADY REPORTING 8 FT SEAS IN LONG PERIOD SWELL. SOME OF THIS MAY BE LEFT OVER SWELL FROM THE EARLIER HATTERAS LOW...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST IS ISABEL GENERATED. THE 00Z NWW3 IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z GFDL NWW3... BOTH INDICATED 10 FT SWELLS REACHING THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE MORNING. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 18Z GFDL NWW3 INITIALIZED WITH MAX SEAS OF 60 FT. SEA HEIGHTS AT BUOY 41010 WILL LIKELY REACH 14 TO 18 FT WED AND WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT NEAR SHORE. THE CENTER OF ISABEL SHOULD MOVE N OF 31N WED EVENING HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE. LARGER SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE ENDING OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE E TO SE OVER MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN...WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME UNUSUALLY LIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ISABEL TO THE NORTH. SEAS WILL COME DOWN TO LESS THAN 4 FT OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT NEAR THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES WHERE LARGE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF...WITH LIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW OVER THE E GULF MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF ISABEL. WARNINGS... SEE LATEST OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILED WARNINGS. TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 20N W OF 62W TODAY TROPICAL ATLC ZONE (ZONE AMZ87). HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS SW N ATLC (ZONE AMZ088) N OF 21N E OF 75W TODAY THROUGH THU. FORECASTER BROWN