000 AGXX40 KNHC 220524 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HOURS CAN MAKE. LAST NIGHT WE WERE FOLLOWING STRONG E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT SEEMED TO BE LACKING ANY DECENT CIRCULATION CENTER OR CONVECTION. TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY TODAY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTENSIFYING TO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY TUE NIGHT OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA. ALONG CURRENT TRACK EXPECT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS OVER E CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BOTH A PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE E CARIBBEAN SEA...AREA IN VICINITY OF WINDWARD PASSAGE LIKELY TO SEE TS WARNINGS SAT BEFORE SYSTEM SHIFTS ENTIRELY INTO THE EXTREME SW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. OTHER SHORT TERM AREA OF INTEREST IS WEAK 1013 MB GULF LOW PRES ANALYZED E OF THE LOUISIANA DELTA AND S OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA THIS MORNING. LACKING ANY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION IN SATELLITE... GFS INITIALIZES ASSOCIATED 850 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM QUITE WELL AND TRACKS ITS SLOWLY W OVER THE LOUISIANA DELTA BY EARLY SUN. NOT MUCH WINDS AND SEAS TO TALK ABOUT WITH IT... BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THAT COULD HELP TO BRIEFLY DEEPEN SYSTEM AND ENHANCE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS. OUTLOOK... ASIDE FROM CARIBBEAN DEPRESSION FORECASTED OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA LATE TUE... THERE IS CERTAINLY A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THAT COULD POSE SOME PROBLEMS FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY MON AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN WATERS OF SW N ATLC BY LATE TUE. WILL BUILD WINDS AND SEAS TO MODERATE WITH PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS WAVE DEVELOPED FURTHER. WARNINGS... AMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI AND FRI NIGHT N OF 17N W OF 69W. FORECASTER HOLWEG