000 AGXX40 KNHC 230708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2003 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLC INCLUDING TROPICAL ATLC...MODELS VARY ON POSSIBILITY... TIMING AND RESULTANT STRENGTH OF LOW PRES(S) DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. PREVIOUS SHIFTS USED BLEND OF MODELS LEANING TOWARDS NOGAPS SOLUTION AND SEE NO REASON TO ALTER THAN DECISION. WEAK LOW PRES ANALYZED 29N78W 1012 MB AT 0600 UTC...EXPECTED TO MOVE E ALONG FRONT TODAY THROUGH TUE AND NE OF AREA TUE NIGHT. LATEST QSCAT WINDS AND ONE SHIP HAVE MAX SW 20 KT WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT...SO WILL FORECAST THE SAME IGNORING OVERDONE NWW3 GUIDANCE AND HOLDING MAX SEAS BACK TO 8 FT. IF LOW PRES INTENSIFIES AS GFS SUGGESTS THE SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONT AND LATER FORECASTS MAY WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS PRIMARILY ON WINDS AND A FOOT OR SO ON MAX SEAS. ELSEWHERE... RIDGE FROM 24N55W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER S THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. S OF RIDGE...18N...ELY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. CARIBBEAN...LATEST QUIKSCAT AND SSMI SHOWS ELY 15-20 KT S OF 18N INCLUDING GULF OF HONDURAS. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W ALONG 79W SEEMS TO BE IN PHASE WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG 80W WHICH IS ALSO MOVING W. CONVECTION ENHANCED BETWEEN 80W-72W ATTM. EVEN THOUGH ATLC RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD PLAN TO KEEP ELY 15-20 KT OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 18N WITH SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND MOVING W INTO CENTRAL WATERS TUE NIGHT. GULF OF MEXICO...WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS WITH SE WINDS 15 KT OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 20 KT S CENTRAL WATERS BUT MAX SEAS ONLY 5 FT. WITH NORTHERN EXTENSION OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND ANOTHER TUE NIGHT EXPECT 15 KT NE TO SE WIND SHIFT SW WATERS. LIGHT ELY WINDS N WATERS WITH SEAS TO 3 FT ALONG TEXAS COAST THROUGH PERIOD. UPPER FLOW SPILTS OVER SE GULF SO WILL BUMP UP CONVECTION ALONG SURFACE FRONT. OUTLOOK WED THROUGH FRI... ATLC...FRONT SHOULD BE STILL EVIDENT WED AND DRIFTING E BUT EXPECT FRONT TO STALL AND WEAKEN FURTHER ON THU. ON FRI FRONT SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W ALONG 25N. 15-20 KT ELY WINDS WILL SPREAD N AND COVER WATERS S OF 22N BY LATE FRI. CARIBBEAN...WITH YET ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING E CARIBBEAN THU PLAN TO CONTINUE E 15-20 KT OVER WATERS S OF 17N E OF 80W. GULF OF MEXICO...LITTLE CHANGE AS YET ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W THROUGH SW WATERS THU. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON