000 AGXX40 KNHC 270444 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2003 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GFS INSISTENT UPON DEVELOPING TROPICAL-LIKE LOW CENTER ALONG PRE-EXISTING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH EXISTENCE OF TROUGH CURRENTLY NOTED IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THIS AREA...NOT AT ALL CONVINCED THAT A LOW OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL FORM ALONG IT OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THIS FORECAST FURTHER SUPPORTED WITH LATEST ETA AND NOGAPS MODEL RUNS AS WELL. PECULIAR LOOKING 700 MB RH AND OMEGA BULLS-EYE IN GFS TENDS TO INDICATE MODEL HAVING SOME TYPE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM...LENDING TO THE CONTINUED OVER-DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURE ORIGINATING IN THE TROPICS. THIS WAS THE CASE OVER THIS PAST WEEK-END AS WELL WHEN GFS WAS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A 20-25 KT LOW CENTER AND TRACK IT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THAT DID NOT COME TO FRUITION...AND AM HEDGING AGAINST THE GFS SOLN OF A LOW CENTER MOVING NE ACROSS FLORIDA THIS WEEK. WILL TEND TOWARD ETA AND NOGAPS SOLN OVER GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE USUAL TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN WEAKEN IN THE OUTLOOK AS A TROUGH N OF AREA MOVES OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST...HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE...TIL THEN DOMINATE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INDICATING A FAIRLY ATYPICAL COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF AND SW N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE OUTLOOK WITH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING MODERATE TO EVEN STRONG OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF AND SW N ATLC WATERS. WILL WORD MORNING FORECASTS AS SUCH TO INCLUDE THIS...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE CONVINCED ABOUT STRENGTH OF THE FRONT/LOW PRES CENTER...THIS FAR SOUTH...THIS TIME OF YEAR. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER HOLWEG