000 FZPN04 KNHC 071003 HSFEP3 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUL 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 105W-106W FROM 10N TO 17N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE...BETWEEN 100W AND 109W. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 11.5N TO 15N WITHIN 210 NM E OF WAVE...AND SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 103W AND 113W. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS WAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES W- NW. THIS WAVE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS PANAMA AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 80W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING MOSTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE...FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W. A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO SOUTHWARD AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 11N99W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITH AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 118W-119W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES NEAR 10N117W 1009 MB. THE WAVE IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 270 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09.5N75W TO 10N83W TO 08.5N96W... WHERE IT BREAKS...THEN RESUMES AGAIN NEAR 09N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N117W 1009 MB TO 11N128W TO 09N132W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 79W AND 94W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 103W AND 113W. ...DISCUSSION... POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS WAS ANALYZED NEAR 26.5N125W AND WAS MOVING NW AROUND 5-10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1011 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE AROUND 25 KT IN THE NW QUADRANT. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS AS WELL AS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 118W HAVE TRANSPORTED ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE FUELED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON THE W SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND INTO THE SE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION HAS SINCE ENDED..WITH A FEW LINGERING CLUSTERS HAVING SHIFTED SW FROM MEXICO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM JALISCO TO SOUTHERN SONORA. THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NW INTO AN AREA OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW. A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 36N134W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N126W AND 29N117W TO 20N111W. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER NW WATERS HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP- LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS ONLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 123W AS A RESULT. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TO NEAR 32N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NW WATERS. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE AS A RESULT...GENERALLY W OF 125W. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE WATERS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH PERIODS NOW GENERALLY IN THE 15- 17 SECOND RANGE. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS THIS SWELL SLOWLY FADES...BUT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE AREA BEACHES AND REEF LINES. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS INCREASED THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS HAVE FUNNELED THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND ARE PULSING TO 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WITH THIS DAILY CYCLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUE EVENING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW A STRONG BREEZE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION....AND WILL FALL BELOW 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY AS WELL. $$ STRIPLING