000
FZPN03 KNHC 170928
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC THU AUG 17 2023

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC THU AUG 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI AUG 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT AUG 19.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM HILARY NEAR 14.6N 106.3W 991 MB AT 0900 UTC AUG 
17 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT 
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM NE 
QUADRANT...180 NM SE QUADRANT...100 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM 
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM E SEMICIRCLE... 
120 NM SW QUADRANT AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 28 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM E AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 
33 FT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 06N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 98W AND 108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 15.5N 108.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 16.7N 110.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 250 NM NE QUADRANT...220 NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 170 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
330 NM E SEMICIRCLE...180 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E AND 240 
NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 FT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT FROM 06N TO 
23N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W...INCLUDING THE WATERS NEAR CABO 
CORRIENTE...BETWEEN LAS MARIA ISLANDS AND LOS CABOS...AND THE 
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 19.9N 113.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 250 NM NE QUADRANT...220 NM SE QUADRANT...150 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
420 NM E SEMICIRCLE...240 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 270 NM NW 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 48 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 390 NM E AND 270 
NM W SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 FT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT FROM 08N TO 
27N BETWEEN 101W AND 123W...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
OF CALIFORNIA.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE HILARY NEAR 24.6N 114.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HILARY INLAND NEAR 31.6N 
116.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL HILARY NEAR 39.1N 118.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 16.6N 130.8W 1004 MB AT 0900 UTC 
AUG 17 MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 
KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 22N 
BETWEEN 126W AND 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL. 
.12 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 16.5N 
132.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 16.4N 
135.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 180 NM 
N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS  TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 
15N TO 20N BETWEEN 132W AND 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 
9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA JUST W OF 
AREA NEAR 16.4N 140.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 
KT. FROM 16N TO 20N W OF 138W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.60 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 16.4N 
143.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... 
NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC THU AUG 17...

.T.S. HILARY...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM SE QUADRANT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 
17N BETWEEN 102W AND 111W.

.T.S. FERNANDA...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF CENTER 
FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 130W AND 132W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 08N88W TO 11N97W THEN 
RESUMES W OF T.S. HILARY FROM 14N112W TO 12N125W TO 08N135W. THE 
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 04N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 92W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W. 

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.