000
FZPN03 KNHC 150316
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC TUE AUG 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED AUG 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC THU AUG 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 16.5N 119.8W 958 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 15 
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT 
GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
90 NM S SEMICIRCLE...150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 32 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 124W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 17.4N 123.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 50 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM NE QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM 
S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 119W AND 128W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 17.8N 128.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50KT GUSTS 60KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS 
TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 90 M S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N TO 
21N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL FERNANDA NEAR 18.1N 134.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 18.2N 
141.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 18.0N 
147.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL STORM GREG W OF AREA. FROM 13N TO 15N W OF 139W WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.06 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 15 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 
14N97W... INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NE WINDS 20 TO 30 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MERGED.

.LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N 95.5W 1008 MB. FROM 09.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 
88W AND 94W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
11N100W 1007 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE AND SE QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW 
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
13N104.5W 1005 MB. WITHIN 150 NM NE AND SE QUADRANT...AND 90 NM 
NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE SE OF AN LINE FROM 10N98W TO 08N100W 
TO 06N108W TO ANOTHER LINE FROM 10N93W TO 04N100W TO 03N105W SW 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE SE OF AN LINE FROM 10N105W TO 
06N108W TO ANOTHER LINE FROM 10N97W TO 05N100W TO 04N108W SW 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0300 UTC TUE AUG 15...

.HURCN FERNANDA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER. 

.LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N95.5N (EP90)...SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM SE QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE 
LOCATED NEAR 09.5N95.5W TO 11N114W. THE ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM 
11N24W TO 12N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 112W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 
120W AND 127W.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.