000
FZPN03 KNHC 142201
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC MON AUG 14 2023

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC MON AUG 14.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE AUG 15.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC WED AUG 16.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 15.9N 119.0W 955 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 14 
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS
140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
50 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE...150 NM NE QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 34 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N117W TO 19N119W TO 19N121W TO 
15N120W TO 14N118W TO 16N117W TO 18N117W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 15N115W TO 19N117W TO 
19N121W TO 15N124W TO 12N120W TO 12N118W TO 15N115W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 17.2N 122.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. LITTLE CHANGE WITH TROPICAL 
STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE AND 105 NM E SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 32 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 18N120W TO 21N123W TO 21N125W TO 17N125W TO 16N123W TO 
16N121W TO 18N120W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA WITHIN 17N118W TO 21N121W TO 19N127W TO 15N127W TO 
13N125W TO 12N121W TO 17N118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 17.7N 127.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 105 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE...105 NM NW QUADRANT 
AND 90 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
19N126W TO 21N129W TO 21N130W TO 18N129W TO 17N128W TO 18N126W TO
19N126W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA 
WITHIN 21N124W TO 22N128W TO 21N131W TO 17N133W TO 13N128W TO 
14N124W TO 21N124W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.
.60 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 17.9N 130.2W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 18.0N 133.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. 
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 18.0N 
139.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 18.0N
145.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL STORM GREG W OF AREA NEAR 11N142W 1005 MB AT 2100 UTC
AUG 14 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40
KT G 50 KT. IN FORECAST WATERS E OF 140W WITHIN 14N138W TO 
16N139W TO 16N140W TO 11N140W TO 12N138W TO 14N138W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 15N95W TO
16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MERGED WITH AREA DESCRIBED BELOW. 

.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
09N94W 1009 MB. WITHIN 09N90W TO 12N90W TO 13N94W TO 11N95W TO 
04N100W TO 03N96W TO 09N90W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
10N100W 1007 MB. WITHIN 13N91W TO 13N100W TO 10N97W TO 05N104W 
TO 02N99W TO 06N93W TO 13N91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
12N102W 1005 MB. WITHIN 16N95W TO 18N102W TO 15N105W TO 03N106W 
TO 04N99W TO 09N95W TO 16N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2130 UTC MON AUG 14...

.HURCN FERNANDA...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 100
NM OF CENTER. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 08N105W...THEN FROM 12N121W
TO 11N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO
17N BETWEEN 84W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 12N
BETWEEN 116W AND 134W.

$$
.FORECASTER AREINHART. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.