000
FZPN03 KNHC 131605
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN AUG 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON AUG 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE AUG 15.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 15.4N 115.9W 1000 MB AT 1500 UTC 
AUG 13 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 
KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...20 NM SW QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...90 NM NE QUADRANT 
AND 15 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
18N114W TO 18N116W TO 17N117W TO 14N116W TO 14N114W TO 15N114W TO
18N114W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 15.6N 117.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 16.0N 118.7W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N117W TO 18N118W TO 18N120W TO 17N121W TO 
15N120W TO 15N117W TO 17N117W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 18N117W TO 19N120W TO 17N122W TO 
13N120W TO 13N118W TO 15N116W TO 18N117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 16.9N 122.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 75
NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N120W TO 
19N122W TO 19N123W TO 18N124W TO 15N123W TO 15N121W TO 17N120W 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 20 TO 33 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 
20N120W TO 20N124W TO 18N126W TO 13N124W TO 14N120W TO 16N119W TO
20N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 17.5N 126.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 17.8N 132.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 18.0N 138.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 11N136W 1009 MB. WITHIN 14N136W TO 15N137W TO 
14N138W TO 12N138W TO 11N136W TO 11N134W TO 14N136W WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
11.5N140W 1006 MB. WITHIN 14N138W TO 15N139W TO 16N140W TO 
11N140W TO 12N138W TO 14N138W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...W OF
AREA. OVER FORECAST WATERS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 15N96W TO 14N96W TO 14N95W
TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NW TO N WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 15N96W TO
14N96W TO 14N95W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N97W TO 14N97W TO
14N96W TO 15N95W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 14N91W TO 13N93W TO 12N93W TO 12N92W TO
13N91W TO 14N91W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN AUG 13...

.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W.

.LOW PRES NEAR 11N136W 1009 MB...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N83W TO 10N105W...THEN RESUMES FROM 
12N117W TO 10N127W. ITCZ FROM 10N137W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 03N TO 15N AND E OF 111W...FROM 06N TO 
13N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W.

$$
.FORECASTER ERA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.