600 
FZPN03 KNHC 130929
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN AUG 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON AUG 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE AUG 15.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 15.1N 115.1W 1004 MB AT 0900 UTC 
AUG 13 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 
KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...20 NM SW QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 
30 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NE 
AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 15.6N 118.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 
30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW 
AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 16.5N 121.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
90 NM N SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SE AND 30 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS 
TO 29 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 17.3N 125.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 17.6N 130.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 17.7N 137.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 10N134W 1010 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 60 NM SE 
QUADRANTS OF LOW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
11N139W 1009 MB. WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NE QUADRANTS OF LOW 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
11N139W 1008 MB. FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 138W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 
30 KT...EXCEPT E TO SE WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...JUST W 
OF AREA NEAR 11N141W 1008 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 138W 
AND 140W AND FROM 11N TO 16N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 
E TO SE WINDS FROM 11N TO 13N. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...W OF 
AREA NEAR 12N142W 1006 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 11N TO 16N 
W OF 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN DECAYING NE SWELL 
MIXED WITH SE TO S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WELL W 
OF AREA NEAR 12N143W 1006 MB. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT. 

.WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W... INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W... 
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W... 
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.42 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 09N94W 1006 MB. FROM 05N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 95W SW TO WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR LOW PRES NEAR 09N95W 1005 MB. LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0915 UTC SUN AUG 13...

.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 60 NM SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 
117W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N117W AND 13N118W.

.LOW PRES NEAR 10N134W 1010 MB...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 08N90W TO 11N107W.
IT RESUMES FROM NEAR 11N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N134W 1010 MB. 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES TO 08N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 102W 
AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 
100W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 138W AND 140W.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.