000
FZPN03 KNHC 130419
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN AUG 13.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON AUG 14.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE AUG 15.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 15.0N 114.0W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC 
AUG 13 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 
KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 
NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 60 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 15.7N 116.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
60 NM N SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 120 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 16.4N 120.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND NW QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 
TO 27 FT. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 17.3N 123.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 17.7N 128.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 17.8N 134.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 10N134W 1010 MB. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT.  
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
11N136W 1010 MB. WITHIN 60 NM N AND NE QUADRANTS OF LOW WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
11N139W 1009 MB. WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NE QUADRANTS OF LOW 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...JUST W 
OF AREA NEAR 11N141W 1008 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 138W 
AND 140W AND FROM 11N TO 16N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 
E TO SE WINDS FROM 11N TO 13N. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...W OF 
AREA NEAR 11N143W 1006 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 11N TO 16N 
W OF 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN DECAYING NE SWELL 
MIXED WITH SE TO S SWELL.

.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W...
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W... 
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 09N95W 1006 MB. FROM 05N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 95W SW TO WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0415 UTC SUN AUG 13...

.TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG DENOTING 
A WIDE OUTER BAND IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
18N114W TO 16N116W TO 14N116W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W. NUMEROUS MODERATE FROM 
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W.

.LOW PRES NEAR 10N134W 1010 MB...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 30 NM OF 08N133W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 08N91W TO 10N100W TO 
12N108W. IT RESUMES FROM NEAR 11N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N134W 
1010 MB. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES TO 08N140W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 
108W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 135W AND 140W AND WITHIN 
60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 77W AND 81W.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.