000
FZPN03 KNHC 151521
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SAT JUL 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUL 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUL 17.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE CALVIN NEAR 14.7N 129.0W 975 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 15 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT 
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM NE 
QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW 
QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 
150 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 N 
AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT FROM 
06N TO 21N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CALVIN NEAR 16.0N 134.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE...70 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM N AND 120 NM S 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 N AND 150 
NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT FROM 10N TO 
23N BETWEEN 128W AND 138W. 
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CALVIN NEAR 16.6N 137.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CALVIN NEAR 17.1N 140.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
180 NM AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 240 N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT FROM 12N TO 25N W OF 134W. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CALVIN NEAR 18.1N 147.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CALVIN NEAR 19.1N 154.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CALVIN NEAR 20.5N 
161.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SAT JUL 15...

.HURCN CALVIN...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 
CENTER. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 08N95W TO 09N105W TO 
09N120W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 10N134W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 02N TO 
07N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 85W AND 97W... 
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W...AND FROM 04N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 115W.

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.