000
FZPN03 KNHC 191553
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUL 19.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED JUL 20.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU JUL 21.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 19.0N 115.5W 993 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL
19 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...40 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...210 NM NE QUADRANT
AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
17N112W TO 16N116W TO 18N119W TO 22N117W TO 22N112W TO 17N112W 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 
18N108W TO 14N112W TO 18N120W TO 23N119W TO 26N114W TO 18N108W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 20.5N 119.6W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...20 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90
NM S SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 105 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N116W TO 18N119W TO 19N122W TO
22N122W TO 23N119W TO 20N116W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 19N113W TO 17N115W TO 17N123W TO 
25N122W TO 26N116W TO 19N113W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ESTELLE NEAR 22.0N 123.7W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 45
NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N124W TO 20N126W TO 23N126W TO 25N122W TO 
23N121W TO 20N124W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.60 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ESTELLE NEAR 22.5N 
125.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ESTELLE NEAR 22.8N 
127.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. 
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ESTELLE NEAR 23.0N 
130.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ESTELLE NEAR 23.0N 
133.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.WITHIN 03S95W TO 03.4S120W TO 01S120W TO 02S107W TO 02S95W TO
03S95W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SE TO S SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19...

.T.S. ESTELLE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO
21N BETWEEN 109W AND 116.5W.

.TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 04N TO 07.5N BETWEEN 77.5W AND 80.5W.

.TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 07N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 87.5W AND 94W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 08N104W TO 12N109W...AND THEN FROM
13N116W TO 11N122W TO 12N136W. ITCZ FROM 12N136W TO 12N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W 
AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 
82W AND 87W.

$$
.FORECASTER HAGEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.