000
FZPN03 KNHC 171615
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUL 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUL 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUL 19.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 15.7N 107.1W 984 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 17
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT
GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE
QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 40 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE...120 
NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 14N107W TO 15N110W TO 17N110W TO 20N105W TO 18N103W TO 
14N107W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 13N102W TO 
11N108W TO 14N106W TO 18N110W TO 20N106W TO 13N102W...INCLUDING 
NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 17.0N 110.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 195 NM NE SEMICIRCLE
AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
17N107W TO 15N110W TO 15N113W TO 18N114W TO 20N107W TO 
17N107W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...E WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 11 TO 13 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 15N103W TO 13N112W TO
18N115W TO 16N108W TO 21N105W TO 15N103W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 18.0N 115.7W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 100 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 195 NM NE SEMICIRCLE
AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
16N113W TO 16N118W TO 19N119W TO 21N117W TO 20N112W TO 16N113W E 
TO SE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA 
WITHIN 13N108W TO 11N117W TO 22N119W TO 25N112W TO 19N107W TO 
13N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 19.8N 120.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. 
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 21.6N 124.8W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. 
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 22.6N 128.6W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.WITHIN 13N135W TO 10N137W TO 03N140W TO 23N140W TO 18N134W TO
13N135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N136W TO 13N137W TO 11N140W TO
22N140W TO 22N137W TO 16N136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN
NE SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.WITHIN 03.4S81W TO 03.4S120W TO 01N137W TO 13N129W TO 09N105W
TO 03.4S81W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S TO SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03.4S81W TO 03.4S120W TO 00N134W TO
12N117W TO 03N82W TO 03.4S81W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 02S84W TO 03.4S120W TO 02N107W TO
08N100W TO 04N83W TO 02S84W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
IN SE TO S SWELL.

.03 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 29N123.5W TO 29N125W TO 29.5N127W TO
30N127.5W TO 30N122.5W TO 29N123.5W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 29N123.5W TO 29N125W TO 29.5N127W TO
30N127.5W TO 30N122.5W TO 29N123.5W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT IN NW TO N SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1550 UTC SUN JUL 17...

.HURRICANE ESTELLE...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 103W AND 111W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 11N97W AND THEN FROM 13N111W TO 
12N125W TO 10N132W. ITCZ FROM 10N132W TO BEYOND 08N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATED N OF 03N E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 
09N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 130W. 

$$
.FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.