000
FZPN03 KNHC 170939
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUL 19.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 15.1N 105.9W 988 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 17 
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT 
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE 
QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 40 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE...120 
NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N103W TO 13N107W TO 15N108W TO 19N106W TO 
17N101W TO 14N103W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 11N100W TO 
09N104W TO 12N106W TO 17N101W TO 14N100W TO 11N100W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 16.4N 109.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM FROM CENTER 
EXCEPT 210 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
15N108W TO 14N112W TO 17N113W TO 20N111W TO 21N105W TO 
15N108W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 03S80W TO 03.4S120W TO 
00N134W TO 08N131W TO 10N102W TO 03S80W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO 
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 17.4N 114.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 100 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE 
QUADRANT...205 NM SE QUADRANT AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS 
TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N112W TO 15N119W TO 20N118W TO 
21N113W TO 20N111W TO 16N112W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 10N105W TO 08N113W TO 19N111W TO 
25N113W TO 19N104W TO 10N105W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT 
IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 19.0N 118.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 21.1N 123.4W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 22.5N 127.1W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.WITHIN 03.4S82W TO 03.4S120W TO 00N133W TO 10N131W TO 10N107W
TO 03.4S82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S TO SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MERGED WITH AREA DESCRIBED ABOVE. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03.4S82W TO 03.4S120W TO 10N106W TO 
11N93W TO 05N93W TO 03.4S82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT 
IN SE TO S SWELL.

.WITHIN 11N136W TO 08N140W TO 24N140W TO 22N133W TO 18N133W TO
11N136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 14N136W TO 11N140W TO 23N140W TO 
22N137W TO 19N136W TO 14N136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN 
NE SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 29N125W TO 29N127W TO 30N128W TO 30N122W
TO 29N125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN N SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 27N126W TO 27N128W TO 30N129W TO 
30N123W TO 27N126W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN N 
SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC SUN JUL 17...

.HURRICANE ESTELLE...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 103W AND 109W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 11N94W AND THEN FROM 
13N111W TO 11N130W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 140W. 

$$
.FORECASTER AREINHART. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.