389 
FZPN03 KNHC 160351
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SAT JUL 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUL 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON JUL 18.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 13.2N 102.0W 1006 MB AT 0300 UTC 
JUL 16 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 
KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 40 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
14N97W TO 12N101W TO 12N102W TO 15N102W TO 16N98W TO 14N97W WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 08N98W TO 
08N104W TO 13N101W TO 13N99W TO 10N96W TO 08N98W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 14.6N 104.7W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 50 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 10N99W TO 10N106W TO 15N107W
TO 18N104W TO 15N100W TO 10N99W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 15.2N 106.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 16.0N 107.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...105 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS 
TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N106W TO 14N111W TO 19N110W TO 
20N106W TO 18N103W TO 14N106W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO 
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA WITHIN 10N101W TO 03N112W TO 07N116W TO 13N112W TO 18N104W 
TO 10N101W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 17.2N 112.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 18.8N 116.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 20.8N 121.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.WITHIN 03.4S91W TO 03.4S120W TO 00N135W TO 01N127W TO 01S114W
TO 03.4S91W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03.4S82W TO 03.4S120W TO 00N131W TO 
08N119W TO 04N115W TO 03.4S82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03.4S80W TO 03.4S120W TO 00N131W TO 
11N121W TO 03N84W TO 03.4S80W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN S TO SW SWELL.

.WITHIN 29N122W TO 28N125W TO 29N126W TO 30N126W TO 30N121W TO
29N122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 15N138W TO 13N140W TO 22N140W TO
21N137W TO 19N136W TO 15N138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN
NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0300 UTC SAT JUL 16...

.T.S ESTELLE...NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO TS ESTELLE NEAR 13N102W TO
09N118W TO 09N133W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N133W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 130W...AND 
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 134W AND 140W. 

$$
.FORECASTER AREINHART. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.