000
FZPN03 KNHC 162216
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC FRI JUL 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SAT JUL 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC SUN JUL 18.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 14.9N 122.4W 955 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 16 
MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS
140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
50 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 29 FT. 
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 14N120W TO 14N123W TO 16N124W TO 17N121W TO 
16N120W TO 14N120W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA...WITHIN 12N118W TO 11N125W TO 16N129W TO 19N122W TO 
18N119W TO 12N118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 14.8N 125.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 50 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM ALL QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 29 FT. 
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 14N124W TO 14N127W TO 15N127W TO 17N126W TO 
16N124W TO 14N124W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA...WITHIN 10N124W TO 12N130W TO 13N140W TO 16N140W TO 
18N121W TO 10N124W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 15.3N 128.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 50 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 90 NM ALL QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 29 FT. 
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 12N127W TO 03N124W TO 06N130W TO 17N135W TO 
17N125W TO 12N127W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 15.4N 132.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 14.7N 136.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FELICIA NEAR 13.8N 141.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.NEW LOW PRES NEAR 13N107W 1010 MB. WITHIN 09N99W TO 10N105W TO 
15N109W TO 18N104W TO 15N98W TO 09N99W SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
16N110W 1006 MB. WITHIN 11N105W TO 05N116W TO 14N110W TO 21N108W 
TO 17N104W TO 11N105W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
17N114W 1006 MB. WITHIN 17N111W TO 16N112W TO 17N116W TO 
19N117W TO 20N113W TO 17N111W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 
FT. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 11N110W TO 09N112W TO 15N113W TO 20N118W
TO 19N110W TO 11N110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.

.WITHIN 10N87W TO 09N88W TO 10N89W TO 11N88W TO 11N87W TO
10N87W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.12 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. 

.WITHIN 24N135W TO 15N137W TO 17N140W TO 28N140W TO 30N124W TO
24N135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 25N136W TO 20N140W TO 28N140W TO 
30N134W TO 29N128W TO 25N136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 22N138W TO 22N140W TO 25N140W TO 
27N137W TO 22N138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.

.WITHIN 03.4S81W TO 02S95W TO 03.4S119W TO 04N82W TO 03.4S81W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03.4S106W TO 03.4S120W TO 00N120W TO 
02S114W TO 02S110W TO 03.4S106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03.4S107W TO 03.4S120W TO 01S118W TO 
02S107W TO 03.4S107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN S TO 
SW SWELL.

.WITHIN 00N131W TO 00N140W TO 07N140W TO 06N136W TO 03N135W TO
00N131W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 00N122W TO 00N140W TO 08N140W TO 
03N132W TO 02N122W TO 00N122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT
IN S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 08N136W TO 06N136W TO 06N139W TO 
09N140W TO 14N140W TO 08N136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT
IN MIXED SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2100 UTC FRI JUL 16...

.HURRICANE FELICIA...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 122W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N100W TO
13N116W...THEN FROM 13N126W TO 13N136W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
13N136W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 
112W AND 118W AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 136W AND 138W.

$$
.FORECASTER KONARIK. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.