000
FZPN03 KNHC 161618
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI JUL 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT JUL 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUL 18.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 15.0N 121.6W 962 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 16 
MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT 
GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM S 
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 
NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 29 FT. ELSEWHERE....WITHIN 14N120W TO
14N122W TO 16N123W TO 17N121W TO 16N120W TO 14N120W WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 12N118W TO 
12N126W TO 16N127W TO 19N123W TO 18N119W TO 12N118W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 14.6N 124.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 50 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH 
SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 11N123W TO 11N128W TO 16N131W 
TO 19N124W TO 16N121W TO 11N123W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 14.7N 127.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 50 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH 
SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 13N126W TO 11N128W TO 16N134W 
TO 19N130W TO 17N124W TO 13N126W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 14.8N 131.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 14.4N 135.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FELICIA NEAR 13.7N 138.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 109W. WITHIN 14N99W TO 14N100W TO 15N107W TO
15N101W TO 15N99W TO 14N99W SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 
FT. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 09N93W TO 05N95W TO 09N105W TO 15N106W 
TO 15N95W TO 09N93W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
16N110W 1006 MB. WITHIN 16N104W TO 12N110W TO 20N108W TO 20N106W
TO 18N103W TO 16N104W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES... WINDS 
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
17N115W 1005 MB. WITHIN 15N110W TO 15N113W TO 18N116W TO 
20N113W TO 18N110W TO 15N110W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 
FT. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 12N110W TO 17N116W TO 20N115W TO 20N111W
TO 18N108W TO 12N110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.

.WITHIN 10N86W TO 10N88W TO 11N88W TO 11N87W TO 11N86W TO
10N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.15 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.45 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N86W TO 10N86W TO 10N87W TO 11N88W TO
12N87W TO 11N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.WITHIN 03.4S81W TO 03S96W TO 03.4S119W TO 04N85W TO 04N81W TO
03.4S81W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03.4S108W TO 03.4S112W TO 02S112W TO 
02S111W TO 02S108W TO 03.4S108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9
FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.WITHIN 22N136W TO 21N140W TO 30N140W TO 30N125W TO 22N136W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 29N131W TO 27N132W TO 28N136W TO 
30N134W TO 30N131W TO 29N131W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT
IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 21N139W TO 22N140W TO 27N140W TO 
27N136W TO 21N139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN S TO SW
SWELL.

.WITHIN 00N127W TO 00N140W TO 09N140W TO 08N135W TO 04N130W TO
00N127W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 05N123W TO 03N127W TO 06N130W TO 
08N129W TO 08N126W TO 05N123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 
FT IN N SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1200 UTC FRI JUL 16...

.HURRICANE FELICIA...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N105W TO 13N115W...THEN 
FROM 14N125W TO 13N138W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N138W TO 
13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 94W AND 
98W...FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N
BETWEEN 136W AND 138W.

$$
.FORECASTER KONARIK. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.