000
FZPN03 KNHC 151617
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 17.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 20.4N 121.1W 996 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
15 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE
QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE...120
NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 23 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N118W TO 17N122W TO 22N124W TO 24N120W TO 
22N117W TO 16N118W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA WITHIN 16N114W TO 14N122W TO 23N123W TO 24N117W TO 
20N113W TO 16N114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 22.4N 123.9W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE 
WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N124W TO 22N127W TO 
25N127W TO 26N125W TO 24N121W TO 20N124W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 20N118W TO 18N123W TO 
21N128W TO 24N128W TO 27N123W TO 20N118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA NEAR 23.7N 126.2W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 12 
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N126W TO 24N129W TO 26N128W TO 26N126W 
TO 25N125W TO 23N126W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 21N126W TO 21N129W TO 24N131W TO 27N128W
TO 26N125W TO 21N126W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.
.60 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 23.9N 
127.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 23.5N 
128.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KARINA NEAR 22.6N 
130.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.WITHIN 14N137W TO 15N139W TO 18N137W TO 19N136W TO 17N135W TO
14N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16.5N137W TO 16.5N138.5W TO 16.5N140W 
TO 17N140W TO 17N137W TO 16.5N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT
IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 15.5N139W TO 15N139.5W TO 15N140W TO 
16N140W TO 16N139W TO 15.5N139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN
MIXED SE AND NW SWELL.

.WITHIN 12N127W TO 12N128W TO 12N129W TO 14N129W TO 14N128W TO
12N127W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. WITHIN 11N129W TO
08N136W TO 10N138W TO 12N132W TO 13N129W TO 11N129W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.WITHIN 03.4S108.5W TO 03.4S120W TO 02.5S120W TO 02.5S115.5W TO
03S108.5W TO 03.4S108.5W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED
SE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03.4S98W TO 03.4S120W TO 03S120W TO 
03S104.5W TO 03.4S98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SE
AND SW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1530 UTC TUE SEP 15...

.TROPICAL STORM KARINA...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
WITHIN 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 13N100W TO 10N106W THEN RESUMES 
W-SW OF KARINA FROM 17N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N135W TO BEYOND 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 08N E OF
82W TO COLOMBIA...FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W...FROM 08N
TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 103W AND 
107W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 106W AND 115W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.