000 FZPN03 KNHC 201617 HSFEP2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1630 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. SECURITE E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE EQUATOR E OF 120W SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 20. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT SEP 21. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 22. .WARNINGS. ...HURRICANE WARNING... .HURRICANE LORENA NEAR 22.7N 109.0W 987 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 20 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...20 NM NW QUADRANT AND 50 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 21N TO 25N E OF 111.5W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LORENA NEAR 23.3N 111.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...40 NM NW QUADRANT AND 70 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM S AND 60 NM N SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 109.5W AND 113.5W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 22N TO 26N E OF 117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 23.7N 112.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. .48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 24.4N 113.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 24N TO 27N E OF 117W. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LORENA NEAR 26.4N 115.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED BY MARIO. ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 17.7N 130.2W 999 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 20 MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 20 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 75 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 126W AND 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 18.3N 131.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N SEMICIRCLE...40 NM SE QUADRANT AND 30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 128W AND 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 17.3N 133.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 90 NM SE QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 130W AND 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 16.9N 135.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 18.0N 136.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. .120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 19.0N 138.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 17.9N 110.1W 994 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 20 MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 75 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 103W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 19.8N 110.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 50 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 09N TO 22N BETWEEN 101W AND 117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 22.3N 113.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM S AND 60 NM N SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO NEAR 25.0N 116.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIO NEAR 26.0N 118.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. .120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARIO NEAR 25.0N 120.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY. .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. .FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 87W AND 97W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 89W AND 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. .S OF 01S W OF 108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. .48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01S W OF 113W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL. .REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20... .HURRICANE LORENA...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM SW SEMICIRCLE AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT. .TROPICAL STORM KIKO...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT. .TROPICAL STORM MARIO...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 10N86W TO 07N90W TO 06N96W...THEN RESUMES FROM 14N114W TO 13N117W TO 17N126W...THEN FROM LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 13N134W TO 12N137W TO BEYOND 12N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 98W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 127W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR AND WITHIN 90 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH W OF 135W. $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.