000
FZPN03 KNHC 180303
HSFEP2

45HIGH SEAS FORECAST NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0430 
UTC WED SEP 18 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC WED SEP 18.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC THU SEP 19.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC FRI SEP 20.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 16.7N 125.5W 1002 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 
18 MOVING SW OR 235 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
60 NM E SEMICIRCLE...45 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT 
WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 90 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 12.5N TO 20N BETWEEN 121W AND 128W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 16.2N 127.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 120 NM 
SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 16.5N 128.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH SEAS 
TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLES 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12.5N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT 
IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KIKO NEAR 17.0N 129.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KIKO NEAR 16.9N 131.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KIKO NEAR 15.9N 134.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 15.1N 102.1W 1002 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 
18 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER 
EXCEPT 60 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM NW 
AND SE QUADRANTS...45 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE...210 NM SE...150 NM 
SW...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W WINDS 
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 17.7N 104.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 60 NM E AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM N AND 210 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 
100W AND 106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 19.3N 105.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 
60 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS TO 12 FT WITHIN 30 NM NE AND 75 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 16N 
TO 21N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 20.6N 107.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 22.0N 110.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LORENA NEAR 24.5N 112.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 13.2N 109.3W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 
18 MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS TO 12 FT WITHIN 0 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE...30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 0 NM NW QUADRANTS...AND ACROSS SE 
SEMICIRCLE...FROM 06N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 105W AND 116W WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.  
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 15.5N 112.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM S SEMICIRCLE...40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NE...150 NM SE 
QUADRANTS AMD 0 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT...AND ACROSS SE 
SEMICIRCLE FROM 08N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 108W AND 118W WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 08N TO 18.5N 
BETWEEN 106W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 16.7N 113.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM S SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E AND 0 NM W 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 
360 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 09.5N TO 20.5N BETWEEN 107W AND 119W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIO NEAR 16.9N 113.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE MARIO NEAR 17.5N 114.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 19.4N 115.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N134.5W 1008 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE NE 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 131W AND 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES NEAR 14N136W 1008 MB. WITHIN 90 NM NW 
QUADRANT NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 
17N BETWEEN 135W AND 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N137W 1006 MB. 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 120 NM OF MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 96W AND 
101W NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0200 UTC WED SEP 18...

.TROPICAL STORM KIKO...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 45  
NM NW AND 75 NM SW QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES.

.TROPICAL STORM LORENA...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 45 NM N AND 
120 NM S SEMICIRCLE...AND IN LARGE BAND FROM 120 TO 210 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM 
NE AND 330 NM SW SEMICIRCLES.

.TROPICAL STORM MARIO...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM NE AND 150 
NM SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
600 NM SW QUADRANT.

.LOW PRES NEAR 14N134.5W...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM W 
QUADRANT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO E OF TROPICAL STORM 
LORENA NEAR 145N98W...THEN BRIEFLY RESUMES AT 11N112W TO 
17N120W...THEN RESUMES AGAIN NEAR 14.5N129W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
14N134.5W TO BEYOND 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION N OF 04.5N E OF 83W...FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 90W AND 
97W...FROM 11.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W...AND FROM 07N 
TO 10N W OF 136W.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.