000
FZPN03 KNHC 221522
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC THU AUG 22 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU AUG 22.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI AUG 23.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT AUG 24.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM IVO NEAR 15.7N 113.6W 996 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 22 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT 
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM NW AND SE 
QUADRANTS...40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 20 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM SE QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 90 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 13N TO 21N 
BETWEEN 105W AND 120W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT 
IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 07N TO 20N 100W 
AND 115W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IVO NEAR 17.9N 116.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR 
GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 
24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N 
TO 23N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT 
IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IVO NEAR 21.2N 117.6W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE AND 150 NM SW 
 WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 
180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 28N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. FROM 20N TO 26N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED 
SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IVO NEAR 23.1N 118.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IVO NEAR 25.0N 119.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO NEAR 28.0N 
121.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL. FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 
120W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W SW WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W SW WINDS 
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 
15N BETWEEN 105W AND 122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS MERGED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO. 

.S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S90W TO 07N100W TO 07N112W TO 02N100W TO 
03.4S102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 
BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.12 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 26N TO 31N SE WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT 
IN NW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 124W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC THU AUG 22...

.T.S. IVO...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM SW OF A LINE 
FROM 16N116W TO 15N115W TO 13N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE 
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W.  

.CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 21N E OF 109W TO 
MEXICAN COAST.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 07N85W TO 11N102W, THEN CONTINUES W OF T.S.
IVO FROM 13N122W TO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 14N130W TO 
13N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 16N105W TO 13N103W TO 
10N101W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED FROM 11N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 122W AND 126W. 

$$
.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.