000
FZPN03 KNHC 311536
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC WED JUL 31 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED JUL 31.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU AUG 01.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI AUG 02.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 14.0N 125.8W 991 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 31 
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT 
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...0 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM SE 
AND 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE NEAR 15.2N 130.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT WITHIN 210 NM SE AND 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. 
SEAS 11 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 123W AND 
134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 16.2N 135.7W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
240 NM NE AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 35 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 11 TO 20 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 11N TO 24N 
W OF 129W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 17.2N 141.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 17.8N 146.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE NEAR 19.0N 151.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 13.5N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.FROM 14N TO 20N W OF 139W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL. 
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.S OF 03S W OF 93W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE 
AND S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1510 UTC WED JUL 31...

.HURRICANE FLOSSIE...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 
150 NM SE AND 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM E AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES.

.TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05N109W TO 16N108W...SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 106W AND 118W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 12N72W TO 07N81W TO 11N109W TO 
11N120W...RESUMES FROM 10N120W TO 11N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W...FROM 06N 
TO 09N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 125W AND 
137W.

$$
.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.