000
FZPN03 KNHC 300242
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC TUE JUL 30.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED JUL 31.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC THU AUG 01.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 12.7N 140.0W 990 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL 30 
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT 
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE...20 NM SW QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...75 
NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 120 SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 
KT. SEAS 10 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 04.5N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 132W AND 140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 13.9N 144.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 80 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM NE AND 120 NM 
SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS 
FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 136W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT 
IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 15.2N 148.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. OVER 
FORECAST WATERS FROM 15N TO 19N W OF 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.  
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 15.6N 150.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERICK NEAR 16.0N 153.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERICK NEAR 16.7N 157.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE NEAR 12.3N 117.8W 1001 MB AT 0300 UTC 
JUL 30 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 
KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NW AND 
SE QUADRANTS...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT.SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NW...150 NM NE...AND 0 NM SE AND SW 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N AND 45 NM 
S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 113W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 12.4N 119.9W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
60 NM NW...150 NM NE...AND 15 NM SE AND SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS 
TO 20 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 12.8N 122.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
240 NM NE...180 NM SE...60 NM SW...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH 
SEAS TO 28 FT. ELSWHERE WITHIN 210 NM NW AND 240 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF 
AREA FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 116W AND 124W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 14.1N 127.6W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 110 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 
WITHIN 210 NM NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 36 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM NW AND 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 07N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 15.0N 130.4W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 15.9N 133.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 17.4N 139.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 10.5N TO 11.5N E OF 88W...INCLUDING GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 
TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0200 UTC TUE JUL 29...

.T.S. ERICK...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM N AND 90 
NM S SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 
08N TO 15N BETWEEN 136W AND 140W.

.T.S. FLOSSIE...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 
112W AND 121W. 

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W-101W N OF 04N. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 96W AND 
106W. 

.LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N122.5W 1007 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM E AND 240 NM W SEMICIRCLES.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N74W TO 09.5N99W TO 10.5N107W...THEN 
RESUMES FROM 11N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N122.5W TO 14N131W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N AND 180 NM S OF 
TROUGH E OF 95W.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.