000 FZPN03 KNHC 290914 HSFEP2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1030 UTC MON JUL 29 2019 SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. SECURITE E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE EQUATOR E OF 120W SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 29. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUL 30. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED JUL 31. .WARNINGS. ...HURRICANE WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM ERICK NEAR 11.7N 134.5W 995 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 29 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 20 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 60 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 126W AND 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 12.2N 136.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 12.8N 139.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...20 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 75 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 32 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK W OF AREA NEAR 14.1N 144.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 36 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 15.3N 148.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERICK NEAR 16.0N 153.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. .120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERICK NEAR 16.9N 158.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. ...HURRICANE WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE NEAR 12.5N 113.0W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 29 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE NEAR 12.6N 118.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 13.3N 123.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 28 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 14.5N 128.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 15.8N 134.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. .120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 17.5N 140.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY. .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. .GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .06 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. .48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .FROM 10.5N TO 11.5N E OF 89W...INCLUDING GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .06 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 89W...INCLUDING GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. .18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 89W...INCLUDING GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC MON JUL 29... .TROPICAL STORM ERICK...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 135W AND 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 07.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 132W AND 138W. .TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND 115W. .TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 122W FROM 06N TO 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 07.5N80W TO 08N90W TO 09N104W, THEN RESUMES WEST OF T.S. FLOSSIE FROM 10N117W TO 12N124W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS WEST OF T.S. ERICK FROM 09N136W TO BEYOND 09N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ARE NOTED FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 80W, INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN NEAR 06.5N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W. $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.