000 FZPN03 KNHC 280915 HSFEP2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1030 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019 SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. SECURITE E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE EQUATOR E OF 120W SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC SUN JUL 28. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC MON JUL 29. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUL 30. .WARNINGS. ...HURRICANE WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM ERICK NEAR 12.1N 128.1W 1005 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 28 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERICK NEAR 12.8N 133.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 14.0N 138.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER... EXCEPT 60 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10 TO 18N BETWEEN 132W AND 140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 15.4N 143.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE. .96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 16.6N 148.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. .120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERICK NEAR 17.0N 153.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY. .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. .LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N105W 1009 MB MOVING WNW 19 KT. WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 12N113W 1008 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 106W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 12.5N118.5W 1005 MB. WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. .N OF 14.5N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. .48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 89W...INCLUDING GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. .24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. .48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 88W...INCLUDING GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. .REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC SUN JUL 28... .TROPICAL STORM ERICK...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLES...AND FROM 10N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 128W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W. .LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N105W...NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N93W TO A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 10.5N105W TO 12N120W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N132W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 117W. $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.