000
FZPN03 KNHC 280232
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUL 28.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON JUL 29.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE JUL 30.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ERICK NEAR 11.9N 126.8W 1005 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL 
28 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT 
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS TO 11 FT WITHIN 75 NM NE 
SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM E QUADRANT AND 150 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA 
FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE AND S SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERICK NEAR 12.6N 131.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 0 NM SW QUADRANT WITH 
SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N AND 150 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 13.7N 137.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM 
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF 
CENTER...EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 19 FT. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 240 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 
8 TO 10 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 15.0N 142.1W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ERICK NEAR 16.5N 146.5W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ERICK NEAR 17.0N 151.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR 10N103W 1009 MB MOVING W 18 KT. WITHIN 
210 NM N QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE 
FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
11.5N110.5W 1008 MB. WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 
12N117W 1005 MB. WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM SE 
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

.GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 95.5W N TO NE 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 
95.5W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 88W...INCLUDING GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO 
E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. FROM 09.5N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 88W AND 91W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED 
NE AND S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 88W...INCLUDING GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. FROM 
09.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 
FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 88W...INCLUDING GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.S OF 02.5S BETWEEN 93W AND 107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 
FT IN SE TO S SWELL. S OF 00N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE TO S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S W OF 109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
TO 8 FT IN SE TO S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02.5S W OF 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
TO 8 FT IN SE TO S SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0130 UTC SUN JUL 28...

.TROPICAL STORM ERICK...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 
128W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM 
NE AND 120 NM NW QUADRANTS.

.TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 88W N OF 04N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W.

.TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 104W FROM 03N TO 15N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 110W.

.TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 114W FROM 05N TO 18N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N74.5W TO 06.5N91W TO 13.5N113W TO 
12.5N123W. ITCZ FROM 10N127W TO 08.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W.

$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.