000
FZPN03 KNHC 160917
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC TUE OCT 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED OCT 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU OCT 18.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...

.TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 18.7N 104.5W 998 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 16 
MOVING NNW OR 335 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT 
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF CENTER. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 
FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 19.5N 105.2W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 20.0N 106.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION TARA NEAR 20.0N 106.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT 
NEAR 30N.
.18 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29.5N NW TO N WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.S OF LINE FROM 03.4S102W TO 02N110W TO 00N124W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL. WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
FROM 13N99W TO 08N116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S106W TO 01S110W TO 
03.4S120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL. FROM 09N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 103W AND 113W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN 
SW SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.COLD FRONT APPROACH 30N140W. NW OF LINE FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W 
S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N139W TO 28N140W. N OF 28.5N 
AND E OF FRONT TO 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW 
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N138W TO 26N140W. N OF 29N E 
OF FRONT TO 136W SE TO S WINDS WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT. W OF FRONT AND N OF 29N WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN NW 
SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N138W TO 27N138W TO 
25N140W. W OF LINE FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N139W TO 
27N139W TO 25N140W. N OF LINE FROM 15N132W TO 19N140W WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 
8 FT. FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW PRES 1006 MB NEAR 12.5N 92.5W. N OF 
14.5N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. WITHIN 90 NM 
N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 10 
FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 96W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0845 UTC TUE OCT 16...

.TROPICAL STORM TARA...NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 
60 NM NW AND 30 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 103W TO 106.5W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N85W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 
16N87W TO 16N89W TO 17N95W TO 12N106W TO 12N116W TO 09N121W TO 
10N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N 
OF LINE FROM 07N82W TO 11N92W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS W OF 95W.

$$
.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.