000
FZPN03 KNHC 160929
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC FRI SEP 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SAT SEP 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC SUN SEP 18.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ORLENE NEAR 19.9N 125.2W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP
16 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 16N
TO 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ORLENE NEAR 20.0N 128.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 60 NM N AND 45 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 16N TO 24N
BETWEEN 126W AND 134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ORLENE NEAR 20.0N 133.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 150 NM N AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 13 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN
131W AND 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ORLENE NEAR 20.4N
138.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ORLENE NEAR 21.5N
142.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE AND
INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.W OF A LINE FROM 11N135W TO 15N135W TO 17N129W TO 24N129W AND S
OF A LINE FROM 24N129W TO 22N140W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8
TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST W OF 134W BETWEEN 16N AND 24N NE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.LOW PRES NEAR 12N106W 1007 MB. FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND
109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
14N106W 1007 MB. WITHIN 210 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW SW WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
17N109W 1006 MB. WITHIN 270 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW E TO SE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 21N
BETWEEN 104W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0900 UTC FRI SEP 16...

.TROPICAL STORM ORLENE...SCATTERED MODERATE SW SEMICIRCLE WITHIN
120 NM.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N77W TO 13N100W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR
12N106W TO 10N113W TO 10N132W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N132W TO
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 77W AND 81W AND FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 92W AND 109W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.

$$
.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.