000
FZPN03 KNHC 210247
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0430 UTC SUN AUG 21 2016

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN AUG 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON AUG 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE AUG 23.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KAY NEAR 20.6N 113.3W 1000 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 21
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM
SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAY NEAR 21.5N 115.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 40 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAY NEAR 22.5N 117.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE.  SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY NEAR 23.4N 120.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KAY NEAR 23.5N
123.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST REMNANT LOW KAY DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.30 HOUR FORECAST S OF A LINE FROM 02S120W TO 02S110W TO
03.4S106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW
SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF A LINE FROM 04N120W TO 06N115W TO
03.4S98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW
SWELL. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0215 UTC SUN AUG 21...

.TROPICAL STORM KAY...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 45 NM SW OF CENTER.
SCATTERED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM
NW SEMICIRCLE.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG E COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 09N92W TO 11N100W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W 1007 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED/STRONG WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND
85W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND
108W.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.