000
FZPN03 KNHC 191447
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC FRI AUG 19 2016

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC FRI AUG 19.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT AUG 20.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SUN AUG 21.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KAY NEAR 19.1N 111.5W 1002 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG
19 MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM W SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND
120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 19N112W TO 15N116W TO 13N118W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW TO W SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAY NEAR 20.5N 112.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...30 NM NW QUADRANT AND 50 NM
SE QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90
NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM KAY NEAR 21.6N 113.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 20 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM NW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY NEAR 22.2N 114.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KAY NEAR 23.0N
116.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW KAY NEAR 23.7N
118.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 140W FROM 10N TO 19N. WITHIN AREA BOUNDED
BY 18N137W TO 19N138W TO 19N140W TO 17N140W TO 17N138W TO
18N137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.09 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE W OF AREA. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 02S102W TO 02S105W TO 03.4S108W TO
03.4S99W TO 02S102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1445 UTC FRI AUG 19...

.TROPICAL STORM KAY...NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
300 NM SW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM
OF CENTER.

.SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 19N TO 22.5N E OF 109W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 10N90W TO 08N100W
THEN RESUMES FROM 15N114W TO 13N125W TO 10N134W TO 11N138W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 84W...FROM 10N
TO 12.5N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...WITHIN 90 NM W OF A LINE FROM 
19N104W TO 15N105W TO 12N106W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 132W.

$$
.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.