000
FZPN03 KNHC 172104
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC SUN JUL 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC MON JUL 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC TUE JUL 19.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 16.5N 112.5W 991 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL
17 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM SW QUADRANT.  WINDS 20
TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE
AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 300 NM NW AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 17.6N 115.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 110 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
240 NM NW AND 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 30 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 18.4N 119.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SW QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
270 NM NW AND 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 32 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 127W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 19.0N 123.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 20.0N 128.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ESTELLE NEAR 22.0N 133.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE DARBY NEAR 18.3N 128.3W 978 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 17
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS
100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE
QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW
QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180
NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...210 NM SW QUADRANT...AND
240 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N
BETWEEN 122W AND 133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
MIXED SWELL
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DARBY NEAR 18.8N 132.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE.WINDS
20TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM W
AND 120 NM E SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA
FROM 13N TO 25N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DARBY NEAR 19.6N 136.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 50 NM S SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 20
TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM AND 210 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO
25N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DARBY NEAR 19.8N 141.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DARBY NEAR 19.0N 146.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DARBY NEAR 18.0N 150.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 23N W OF 123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN N
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF 125W AND FROM 20N TO
25N E OF 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN
N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST ELSEWHERE N OF 23N W OF 112W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.36 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2045 UTC SUN JUL 17...

.TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 150 NM SE AND 90
NM SW SEMICIRCLES. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM SE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.

.HURRICANE DARBY...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM NE AND 90 NM
SW SEMICIRCLES.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF COAST OF
COLOMBIA N OF 03N

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A SURFACE/MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM 09N82W TO 09N95W TO
10N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 105W.

$$
.FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.