000
FZPN03 KNHC 171607
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN JUL 17.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON JUL 18.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUL 19.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 16.3N 111.8W 994 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL
17 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE SEAS
12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM S
SEMICIRCLES. SEAS TO 23 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 300 NM NW
AND 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 17.2N 114.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 240 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SEAS TO 24 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 17.9N 118.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 270 NM NW AND 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SEAS TO 32 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 127W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 18.2N 122.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ESTELLE NEAR 19.0N 127.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE NEAR 20.8N 132.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE DARBY NEAR 18.3N 127.4W 974 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 17
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS
105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WINDS
20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE
QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...210 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 240 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS TO 32 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 122W
AND 133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE DARBY NEAR 18.8N 130.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM W AND 120 NM E
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. HIGHEST SEAS
TO 25 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 13N TO 25N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DARBY NEAR 19.7N 135.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM S SEMICIRCLE...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 270 NM AND 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 18 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 12N TO 25N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DARBY NEAR 20.1N 140.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DARBY NEAR 19.5N 145.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. 
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM DARBY NEAR 18.5N 150.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.N OF 23N W OF 123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN N SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST N OF 25N W OF 125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 24N W OF 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8
TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN N SWELL.

.42 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC SUN JUL 17...

.TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 90
NM NW SEMICIRCLES. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM SE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.

.HURRICANE DARBY...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 120 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES.

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST OF
COLOMBIA N OF 03N

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM 08N82W TO 08N90W TO 11N105W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S BETWEEN 85W AND 105W.

$$
.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.