000
FZPN03 KNHC 221520
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC THU OCT 22 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
 
PAN PAN
 
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 22.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 23.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC SAT OCT 24.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE PATRICIA NEAR 14.9N 103.8W 973 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 22 
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT 
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...100 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE...70 NM SW QUADRANT AND 
100 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM 
OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 
12 FT. FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN 97W 
AND 110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PATRICIA NEAR 17.2N 105.7W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 100 NM NE...110 NM SE...70 NM SW AND 90 NM NW QUADRANTS. 
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 210 NM OF 
CENTER...EXCEPT 300 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 40 FT. ELSEWHERE 
OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES 
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 101W 
AND 106W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA 
FROM 07N TO 21N BETWEEN 99W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
TO 11 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PATRICIA INLAND NEAR 22.5N 103.8W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS 
WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 117W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
 
.FROM 09N TO 23N W OF 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT 
IN SW TO W SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST W OF LINE FROM 30N127W TO 25N136W TO 10N140W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST W OF LINE FROM 26N140W TO 22N134W TO 12N140W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.

.S OF 01S W OF 117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S BETWEEN 103W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC THU OCT 22...
.HURRICANE PATRICIA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM 
NE...180 NM SE...300 NM SW AND 210 NW QUADRANTS. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 13N95W...THEN FROM 
13N108W 08N136W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 
14N BETWEEN 102W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.