000
FZPN03 KNHC 212100
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC WED OCT 21 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
 
PAN PAN
 
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED OCT 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU OCT 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI OCT 23.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA NEAR 13.1N 99.5W 995 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 
21 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT 
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...100 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 80 NM N SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 
30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...150 NM SE AND 90 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 
100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW 
SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PATRICIA NEAR 14.8N 103.0W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 100 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...90 
NM NW AND 40 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NW AND 60 NM 
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA 
FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 
TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PATRICIA NEAR 18.1N 104.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 110 NM E SEMICIRCLE...70 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 
NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. 
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 
120 N SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER 
AREA FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INLAND NEAR 23.0N 
104.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
 
.HURRICANE OLAF W OF AREA. W OF A LINE FROM 25N140W TO 19N134W 
TO 13N134W TO 07N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST W OF A LINE FROM 24N140W TO 20N136W TO 13N136W 
TO 10N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST W OF LINE FROM 30N125W TO 20N136W TO 13N137W 
TO 09N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MERGING SW AND 
NW SWELL.

.06 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S W OF 117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE 01N126W TO 01N120W TO 03.4S113W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 01N BETWEEN 103W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 2100 UTC WED OCT 21...

.TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 
NM OR CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 
07N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W. 

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 87W E OF 93W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N105W TO 10N126W TO 09N137W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 OF TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 
130W.

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.