000
FZPN03 KNHC 211532
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC WED OCT 21 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
 
PAN PAN
 
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W 

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU OCT 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI OCT 23.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA NEAR 12.9N 97.5W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC 
OCT 21 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 
KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 80 NM N SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 
30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N 
AND 75 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER AREA FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA NEAR 14.5N 101.3W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE...100 NM SE...50 NM SW AND 60 NM NW 
QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 
75 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM NE 
AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
REMAINDER AREA FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 96W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT 
OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PATRICIA NEAR 17.3N 103.8W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 100 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 
180 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM 
OF CENTER AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N102W TO 10N104W WINDS 
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 04N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 99W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT IN  
MIXED SWELL. 
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INLAND NEAR 21.5N 
104.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
 
.HURRICANE OLAF W OF AREA. W OF A LINE FROM 25N140W TO 16N133W 
TO 06N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST W OF A LINE FROM 26N140W TO 18N135W TO 09N140W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN PRIMARILY SW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST W OF LINE FROM 30N126W TO 23N135W TO 09N140W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.

.12 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S W OF 117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 00S W OF 115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02N BETWEEN 100W AND 128W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 1500 UTC WED OCT 21...

.TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 
NM NW SEMICIRCLE. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 06N79W TO 11N93W CONTINUES FROM 12N100W 
TO 10N116W TO 08N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 79W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
180 NM N AND 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 116W.

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.