000
FZPN03 KNHC 210934
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC WED OCT 21 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE 
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE 
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
 
PAN PAN
 
E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE 
EQUATOR E OF 120W 

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC WED OCT 21.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU OCT 22.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI OCT 23.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA NEAR 13.0N 96.0W 1004 MB AT 0900 UTC 
OCT 21 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 
KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...60 NM NE QUADRANT 
AND 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 
NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM W QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 120W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA NEAR 14.0N 99.8W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW 
QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 
120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. 
ELSEWHERE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM 
W SEMICIRCLE. REMAINDER AREA FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 
114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN  
MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PATRICIA NEAR 16.5N 103.3W. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITHIN 100 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW 
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER WITH 
SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...270 NM SE 
QUADRANT AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 
FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE PATRICIA INLAND NEAR 20.5N 104.0W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. EXTENDED 
OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INLAND NEAR 23.0N 
104.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE 
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE 
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
 
.HURRICANE OLAF W OF AREA. FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 139W SE TO S 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. W OF A LINE FROM 05N140W TO 
18N130W TO 26N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT 
PRIMARILY IN S TO SW SWELL. 
.24 HOUR FORECAST W OF A LINE FROM 26N140W TO 17N133W TO 07N140W 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN S TO SW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 09N W OF LINE FROM 09N137W TO 25N137W TO 
30N131W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW AND 
NW SWELL.

.N OF 26N BETWEEN 117W AND 127W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 
FT IN NW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.12 HOUR FORECAST S OF 02S W OF 117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
FT IN SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 00S W OF 115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 
FT IN SW SWELL. 
.48 HOUR FORECAST S OF 03S BETWEEN 101W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL. 

.48 HOUR FORECAST W OF A LINE 30N131W TO 24N140W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL. 

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 

CONVECTION VALID 0700 UTC WED OCT 21...
.TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA...NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 75 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 
108W. 

.NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 84W AND 
89W. 

.SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 137W. 

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 13N103W TO 11N108W TO 11N116W TO 
07N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE BETWEEN 210 NM 
AND 390 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 125W.

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.